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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.